Global solar photovoltaic (PV) installations could reach 24 GW in 2011, according to IMS Research.

Despite the relatively weak start to the year, solar PV installations are set to rise by 24% in 2011 to reach 24 GW, up from 19 GW in 2010. European installations, however, will rise only by 3%. IMS Research’s Q4’11 PV Demand Database shows that solar PV installations exceeded 8 GW in the first half of 2011 and are set to reach 15 GW in the second half confirming the market analyst’s prediction earlier in the year that solar PV installations would soar in 2H.

Italy is predicted to displace Germany as the world’s largest market. IMS Research has analyzed module and inverter shipments to the country and cross-checked inventory levels at integrators and distributors to conclude that 4.5 GW of new capacity was installed in 2010.

Despite a freeze and then cuts to its incentives earlier this year, Italy is forecast to become the world’s largest solar PV market in 2011 for the first time; and install 6.8 GW of new capacity.

Although Europe is stagnating, the American and Asian markets are performing well; these two regions could generate 85% of the global growth in solar PV installations in 2011. Furthermore, the research found that this trend is forecast to continue into 2012, when Europe’s share of new installations will fall to 50%.

The research firm predicts that the USA will become the third largest solar PV market this year, whilst China will be the fourth largest

“Installation rates in China have rocketed since the introduction of provincial and the national FiTs; as China’s Government seeks to provide domestic demand for its huge manufacturing base whilst Europe falters. Installations in China could reach as much as 2.5 GW this year, with IMS Research predicting a level of around 1.9 GW to be most likely,” Sharma concludes.